Will Yemen the Elephant in the Room Lead New Alliances in the Middle East?
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Since then, the stakes have skyrocketed: we’ve seen Saudi airstrikes hitting STC forces in the port of Mukalla and Riyadh issuing a blunt ultimatum for the UAE to withdraw its troops from Yemeni soil. This “brother-against-brother” tension between the two Gulf nations is exactly what’s fuelling rumours of a massive new alignment one that supposedly brings Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia together to counter the Israel-UAE axis.
While one can not completely dismiss this argument, but it is hard to fully agree with it either. Lets break it down; First, its not secret that the Middle East is passing through a deep geopolitical tectonic shift after the Hamas’s October 7 attacks. Regional actors are redefining concept of threats and updating the enemies which is solid process. However, geopolitical alliances can’t be created in a weekend. Military and political alliances take years, if not decades. The cooperation between these countries in some cases are visible and these cooperations have potential for wider collaborations. This is what we call as “tactical cooperation” - not a strategic partnership.
Lets dive in:
1) Iran, From Octopus to Turtle: Iran is clearly weaker than the October 7th. It has lost much of its proxy power and is far from what could be called its “golden octopus age.” Today, Tehran is focused to create a new military doctrine that focuses on defending itself rather than funding proxies in other countries which I call as “from an octopus doctrine to a turtle doctrine”
In many aspects, today’s Iran resembles Egypt after the Camp David Accords. Although de-jure but Iran de-fecto recognized presence of Israel. Iranian regime already lifted famous hair-cover law and opening more rooms to opposition and freedom in the country while expressing self-criticism and “heart searching” of its past polices in Syria and Middle East. I advice you to read recent remarks by former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif support this reading.
I doubt that Iran will jump in any alliance against Israel anytime soon. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see other ways round which I believe seems more likely.
2) Egypt, Strong but Fragile: Egypt, meanwhile, has signed giant energy deals with Israel that worth $35 billion-dollar. It also continues to expand military cooperation with Greece- one of Israel’s closest regional partners to level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Although Egypt’s military is among the strongest in the region, the country is politically fragile. Also, despite official rhetoric and massing military hardwares, radars and air-defence-systems in the Siani peninsula, “backroom” intelligence cooperation between Egypt and Israel is functional and high-level as it appeared during Gaza hostage negotiations.
Egypt’s domestic instability, economic pressure and public dissatisfaction with the Sisi administration limit Cairo’s ability to follow revisionist politics in the region. As the Cold War is over and Egypt doesn’t a Soviet Union to get support, it needs good relations with the US and its ally Israel. In a nutshell, Egypt doesn’t seem to be able to afford to risk its relations with the United States or Israel.
3) Saudi Arabia, self-confidence and money : Unlike Egypt, Riyadh is enjoying strong lobbying power in Washington, wide financial resources and deep economic and security ties with the United States along with billion dollars of arm deals, including F-35s and huge investments provide the Saudi leadership with confidence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman clearly flying on the wheels and he has legit reasons.
Despite mediation of China brings diplomatic ties Iran and Saudi Arabia, this does not mean Saudi Arabia is likely to form a NATO-alike alliance with Iran. Tactical collaboration may continue, but a strategic partnership between Riyadh and Tehran doesn’t remain very likely as of today.
4) Turkey; most eager one: It is not secret that Turkey is replacing Iran and openly challenging Israel in Middle East. Involving into the Gaza case and seeking to establish military bases in Syria are most solid challenges against Israel. Recently, Turkey has increased communication with Iran, improving relations with Egypt by breaking with the past in Libya and collaborating against the UAE in Sudan.
However, one should remember that Turkey has launched proxy wars against almost everyone in the Middle East: against Egypt in Libya, against Saudi interests in Syria and against Iran by its role in the fall of the Assad regime and supporting Azerbaijan in Caucasus.
Turkey is also known as the biggest sponsor for the Muslim Brotherhood that remain as a biggest security concern for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. It also appears that Saudi Arabia shows interest to attract Syria’s Jolani which is a potantial conflict with Turkey.There are overlapping interests, but there is no real alignment.
Tactical Cooperation and Strategic Partnership
Although, can’t be defined as “new alliance”, one can not ignore the solid collaboration between Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular cases such as Sudan. Turkey and Egypt currently find themselves on the same side against the UAE backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF). UAE’s using the Ethiopia as a stepping-stone for its military support to the RSF and possible for newly-recognized Somaliland. This open-secret harms Turkey’s economic an military investments in Somalia and possible will increase concerns of Egypt over Nile River.
On other hand’s UAE’s East African policies poses a grave risk for Saudi Arabia’s interest and role in Gulf of Aden. Iran, an other actor shares same concern with the Saudi Arabia, seek to increase collaboration. This collaboration can be formulated as that; Saudi Arabia prefer a weak Iran in Yemen rather than rapidly-increasing power UAE. Likewise, Iran seeks to stop Israil to be located in Western shores of the Red Sea.
On the other hand, cooperation between Israel and the UAE can reasonably be called an alliance. The UAE was the first Arabic country to sign the Abraham Accords and has supported, both diplomatically and militarily, Israel during the Gaza war. Both countries share similar strategic interests. In addition to military cooperation in East Africa, the UAE and Israel creating a new trade route linking India to the Mediterranean. Thus, it is predictable that India will likely show its interest in joining Israel-UAE axis.
Why the 'New Alliance' Might Just Be a Illusion
Military and diplomatic collaborations in the Middle East are real; the regional actors team-up and redesign their policies. However, naming a collaboration as an alignment requires deeper efforts and interests. Nature of the Middle East region often leads lightning fast developments and changes. Namely, a short time ago Egypt and Turkey were two rivals in Libyan civil war but today cooperating in Sudan. Iran and Saudi Arabia were bitter enemies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
It is fair to say, these four countries have more reasons to conflict than make peace. However, due to increasing common enemy, which is Israel-UAE (potentially India) axis made them to freeze the issues. Unlike so-called Egypt, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia alignment Israel and the UAE don’t have any conflict issues, neither border nor proxy war. This makes the Israel and UAE axis stronger than the counter party. Also, the UAE and Israel alignment dates back to older than cooperation between rival countries.
Concerning Saudi and the UAE conflict; it is important to remember a fundamental rule of Gulf politics: conflicts are frequent but complete breakups are rare. The crisis of Qatar is a clear example. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other GCC states imposed harsh sanctions, closed borders and airspace and even discussed joint military action. Yet today, those sanctions are barely mentioned.
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