Why the Regime Chose Violence Again?

 
Why the Regime Chose Violence Again?

The Iranian regime has once again resorted to violence to suppress protests. At first glance, these demonstrations appeared weaker than those of previous years. Yet over time, they gained momentum. In response, the regime shifted from a relatively restrained approach to open brutality.

Unlike many people would think, the primary reason behind this shifted-policy is internal rather than external. The protests that erupted in late 2025 coincided with a record collapse of the rial against the US dollar. The shock hit Iranian economy which already facing challenges. The high-inflation rate already weighed down the people. Also decrease of oil and natural gas in global markets badly effected Iran’s economy as these assets are only income of the country. In addition to all of these, 12 Days War with Israel overburdened its economy. However, the fall of the rial was not accidental. It resulted from a timid-attempt to liberalize the economy. This appears to be an offering olive branch to the West.

Under these conditions, the regime has announced to stop subsidized dollar handouts. This decision raised anger of The Grand Bazaar of Tehran to go on a strike. The Grand Bazaar merchants, or more commonly know the Bazaarî, have historically been loyal supporters of the regime. They are also representing the conservatism and religiosity in the Iranian society. With their conservative identity and economic power, it is fair to call them “regime elites”. They have a long-standing history of showing its power when the ruling regime/government does something they don’t like. The Bazaarî were once the strongest opponents of the Shah’s modernization policies and played a decisive role in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. A strike in the Grand Bazaar is therefore never just an economic protest. It is a socio-political signal.

As the regime is weakens internationally, it can’t afford to lose credibility at the home. Thus, using violence against the protestors, can be translated as a message to its supporters “we are here and still powerful, keep supporting us”. An other message perhaps was sent to the Bazarîs that “don’t dare to revolt against us”. Ultimately, cracking down on the opposition has been a way of communicating of the regime since 1979.

Playing the Ethnicity Card

The regime cracking down on the protesters with violence, one the other hand it is letting its supporters into the streets to show it still holds the public support. As the Bazaarîs known most loyal regime supporter socio-economic circles, in ethnic wise, the Azeri community are known with their absolute support to the regime. This support is not solely based on patriotism. Some of the higher military and political seats are occupied by Azeri origin figures; like Ali Khamanei and president Masoud Pazashkiyan. The Azeri community is also known with their strong lobby in Iran’s bureaucracy that dates back even pre-1979.

Additionally, the Azeri community are strongly engaged economic landscape of the regime. However, most importantly the Azeris are strongly connected to the regime via religious since, unlike other minorities, Azeri population predominantly follows Shia Islam. This strong ties between the Azeri community and the regime often reveals. Just like pro-regime demonstration took place in Ourmia, January 12th, 2026. The demonstration has been organized by Azeri community leaders and showed strong support to the Ali Khamanei as well as the regime itself. To note that, Ourmia city is capital of so-called West Azerbaijan province. Famous Mahabad city where short-lived Republic of Kurdistan was established in 1944 is also an administrative unit of the province. While the province is historically Kurdish, a controversial policy has changed name of the province to West Azerbaijan.

The regime apparently gives a messaged to other ethnic groups such as Kurds and Baloujis by letting Azeri supporters to take street. Favouring certain ethnic groups has already provoked a reaction from the country's other ethnic communities and polarized the Iranian society. By using its ethnicity card, the regime is playing a dangerous game which may cause ethnic conflicts.

The Most Powerful Weapon of the Regime against the US Airstrikes

As the concerns over possible the US airstrikes is rising, the regime is preparing its counter manoeuvre. In terms of military, Iranian regime often associate with its nuclear capability, ballistic missiles and proxies. However, at the moment, regime is most powerful weapon is none of them. In fact, the regime owns something way stronger than nuclear and ballistic missile which is ambiguity.

The regime’s military power is one of the strongest in the region and the world. It has well-resisted against international economic sanctions. Passed through harsh military conflicts against the US backed Saddam and then Israel. Assisted Russia with kamikaze drones. However, it would be unrealistic to say that Iran’s military power and technological capability to defeat the US. Apparently, military capability is not what stops the US to attack regime, but its regional uncertainty awaiting the entire of MENA region right after collapsing of the Iranian regime. Science of geopolitics suggest that fall of strong regimes like Iran, sitting on a nuclear program and hosting dozens of ethnic and religious groups, will cause a vacuum of power. Such a vacuum will cause dramatic migration waves, ethnic and religious conflicts and proxy wars between other regional powers who wants to take the lion’s share from the regime’s legacy.

The regime is well-aware of that concern. The October 7th Attacks has downgraded Iran’s role in the Middle East. Iran is clearly not a game-maker but is still a disruptor in the regional order. It is also fair to say that, the regime fears of the protestors at the home more than it does of foreign interventions. That may explain, why the regime is brutally crack down on the protestors while former and current Foreign Ministers are repeatedly states that the regime is ready for a “dialogue”.

From the US perspective, despite Iran being a long-standing enemy in the region, the risks of a foggy post-regime environment don't seem to be reasonably be considered. The war in Ukraine already weighed economic and military burdens to the US and its western allies. Shifting its military power into Iran would be more beneficial for Russia and China. Amid the new rivalry and teaming-up attempts of regional powers, such as Saudi, the UAE, Israel and Turkey surely won’t dismiss to compete in a post-regime Iran. This will potentially weaken the US efforts in to build-up a pax-American Middle East order. In light of these factors, a US air raid on Iran seems to be unlikely unless it is symbolic just like B2 bombardment in June 2025.